Choosing a representative
In his excellent book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, the psychologist, and Nobel prize winner, Daniel Kahneman discusses various habits of mind that, when applied to problem solving, can lead us astray. One chapter is devoted to problem substitution.
An example he provides relates to the business of choosing among political candidates. Knowing which of a number of candidates would best fit the role requires an awful lot of specialist knowledge.
Ideally we’d know what sorts of decisions these people are likely to have to make, and under what conditions. We would need to know their style of leadership, the nature of their key working relationships, how they perform under pressure, where their priorities lie when policies need to be sacrificed, what motivates them, what scares them, how quickly they assimilate new knowledge and any other number of factors.
And that’s before we even get to evaluating the policies they are peddling. A tricky task indeed, and one for which very few of us are well equipped. And yet we do form preferences, and in many cases feel quite convinced that we are making the correct choice. How do we do it?
Kahneman suggests that what we do is substitute out the difficult question, choosing instead a far simpler one. Do I like this person? Is he the sort I’d like to have a beer with? Most of us, on the evidence of a newspaper item say, can get a handle on this aspect of personal compatibility quite quickly. Political surveys suggest the beer test is indeed a good predictor of ultimate popularity at the polls.
It’s also slightly nuts. If I think about my friends, the people I choose to spend time with, they’re not necessarily the people I want running the place (and I count this in their favour). The two problems appear to be only tenuously linked, and yet the substitution happens without us even noticing.
We have to make a choice, or else have it made for us by those even less informed. So, perhaps when we come to vote, we might at least consider a new simplification. Don’t ask, would I enjoy sharing a beer with them, but ask instead, are they smart enough to avoid oversimplifying?
Bernard Beckett
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